1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	206509	Bayonets & Tomahawks	Current	299	8.32	5.86	3.26
			Estimated	300	8.15	5.88	3.34

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
"Bayonets & Tomahawks" is a 2-player card-driven strategic wargame focusing on the "French & Indian War", 1755-1760. Its fluid yet rich system ensures fun for players of all levels. One player controls the British and the other controls the French and most Indians. Indian diplomacy, raids, constructions, naval operations, sieges: nothing is left out in order to immerse players in the fascinating military asymmetries of the 18th-Century colonial frontier. A game of Bayonets & Tomahawks can last 1 or more game years depending on the scenario chosen — up to the full conflict. During each game year, there are 8 action rounds where players move their pieces on land and sea, perform raids, build forts and roads, etc. Battles/sieges usually occur at the end of each action round. A game year also includes 3 logistics rounds: “Fleets arrive”, “Colonials enlist” and “Winter quarters”. Bayonets & Tomahawks is card-driven. But unlike most card assisted wargames player don't manage a hand of cards. Each player starts the year with one undisclosed reserve Action card picked randomly. At the beginning of each Action round, both players draw a new card. They must then choose one of their 2 cards to play for the current round. The other card becomes their reserve for the next round. At each action round, the French player also gets a random Indians action card. The Action points (AP) on the cards in play determine how many stacks of pieces a player can activate during the current round. In addition the cards trigger events and determine initiative for the next Action round. Movement is point to point. Pieces can also move via sea zones. Each side has particular assets he must make the most of in order to achieve victory. The British have overwhelming numbers, the French are more adept at wilderness fighting with the help of their numerous Indian allies. To win, a player must control enough enemy key spaces to reach the scenario’s Invasion victory points requirement by game end. In one-year scenarios, pieces removed permanently from play yield Invasion VP as well. The French player can also win if he succeeds in enough raids during the current year to reach the scenario’s Raid victory points requirement. By its nature, the game lends itself to solitaire play. In bonus, the rules allow to split the actions of each camp methodically. This way, up to 2 British players (British, Colonial) and 3 French players (French, Canadien, Indian) can relive the historic pains of shared command.

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/206509

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Bayonets & Tomahawks? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Bayonets & Tomahawks. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Bayonets & Tomahawks. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	206509	Bayonets & Tomahawks	1.00	5.86	8.32	3.34	299
1	2017	226115	Bloody Dawns: The Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988	0.99	5.54	7.81	3.33	35
2	2017	157653	Illusions of Glory: The Great War on the Eastern Front	0.96	5.69	7.41	3.50	234
3	2015	86177	Genesis: Empires and Kingdoms of the Ancient Middle East	0.96	5.72	7.18	3.04	261
4	2002	3353	World War II: Barbarossa to Berlin	0.95	6.22	7.31	3.53	1,234
5	2005	8626	Assyrian Wars	0.95	5.54	6.41	4.04	107
6	2019	230040	A Pragmatic War: The War of the Austrian Succession 1741 – 1748	0.95	5.55	7.78	2.88	52
7	1998	833	For the People	0.95	6.53	7.78	3.72	1,584
8	2014	22606	Won by the Sword	0.94	5.59	6.59	2.59	173
9	2008	26457	Successors (Third Edition)	0.94	6.32	7.54	3.30	1,215
10	1999	91	Paths of Glory	0.94	7.32	8.05	3.84	4,754
11	2020	253696	Fitna: The Global War in the Middle East	0.94	5.59	7.53	3.22	88
12	2006	11949	Shifting Sands: The Campaign for North Africa 1940-1943	0.93	5.94	7.33	3.19	567
13	2015	113567	Mediterranean Empires	0.92	5.63	7.22	2.75	152
14	2008	26447	Clash of Monarchs	0.92	5.74	7.10	4.05	340
15	2002	3409	The Napoleonic Wars	0.91	5.94	7.01	3.47	767
16	2016	176146	The Lamps Are Going Out: World War I	0.91	5.81	7.69	2.65	312
17	2016	190232	Plan Orange: Pacific War 1932 – 1935	0.90	5.66	7.54	3.41	159
18	2013	31790	Crusade and Revolution: The Spanish Civil War, 1936-1939	0.90	6.13	8.60	3.28	504
19	2008	18748	Unhappy King Charles!	0.90	6.09	7.62	3.31	698
20	2003	7861	Soldier Emperor	0.90	5.54	6.14	2.78	113
21	2017	203087	Nine Years: The War of the Grand Alliance 1688-1697	0.90	5.59	7.58	3.00	85
22	2001	2748	Thirty Years War: Europe in Agony, 1618-1648	0.90	5.84	6.87	3.13	660
23	2009	41004	Bulge 20	0.89	5.58	7.37	2.32	82
24	2020	255570	Brotherhood & Unity	0.89	5.87	8.09	2.91	302
25	1991	6406	Hannibal: The Second Punic War	0.89	5.51	5.67	2.46	105

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Bayonets & Tomahawks while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	206509	Bayonets & Tomahawks	5.86	1.00	5.86	8.32	3.34	299
1	1999	91	Paths of Glory	6.85	0.94	7.32	8.05	3.84	4,754
2	1998	833	For the People	6.18	0.95	6.53	7.78	3.72	1,584
3	1996	234	Hannibal: Rome vs. Carthage	5.98	0.84	7.16	7.80	3.45	4,856
4	2008	26457	Successors (Third Edition)	5.92	0.94	6.32	7.54	3.30	1,215
5	2002	3353	World War II: Barbarossa to Berlin	5.91	0.95	6.22	7.31	3.53	1,234
6	2018	227460	Hannibal & Hamilcar	5.60	0.84	6.68	8.34	3.94	1,388
7	2017	242722	Here I Stand: 500th Anniversary Edition	5.56	0.87	6.39	8.58	4.46	772
8	2012	41066	Virgin Queen	5.54	0.83	6.69	8.05	4.42	1,610
9	2013	31790	Crusade and Revolution: The Spanish Civil War, 1936-1939	5.54	0.90	6.13	8.60	3.28	504
10	2006	11949	Shifting Sands: The Campaign for North Africa 1940-1943	5.53	0.93	5.94	7.33	3.19	567
11	2008	18748	Unhappy King Charles!	5.49	0.90	6.09	7.62	3.31	698
12	2004	7480	Sword of Rome	5.49	0.86	6.37	7.34	3.33	1,600
13	2010	62222	Commands & Colors: Napoleonics	5.49	0.78	7.00	8.01	2.74	2,857
14	2017	157653	Illusions of Glory: The Great War on the Eastern Front	5.47	0.96	5.69	7.41	3.50	234
15	2017	226115	Bloody Dawns: The Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988	5.47	0.99	5.54	7.81	3.33	35
16	2015	86177	Genesis: Empires and Kingdoms of the Ancient Middle East	5.47	0.96	5.72	7.18	3.04	261
17	2002	3409	The Napoleonic Wars	5.42	0.91	5.94	7.01	3.47	767
18	2001	1822	Wilderness War	5.42	0.82	6.58	7.71	3.29	1,761
19	2008	26447	Clash of Monarchs	5.29	0.92	5.74	7.10	4.05	340
20	2004	12891	Friedrich	5.28	0.79	6.71	7.57	3.15	2,635
21	2016	176146	The Lamps Are Going Out: World War I	5.27	0.91	5.81	7.69	2.65	312
22	2005	8626	Assyrian Wars	5.26	0.95	5.54	6.41	4.04	107
23	2019	230040	A Pragmatic War: The War of the Austrian Succession 1741 – 1748	5.25	0.95	5.55	7.78	2.88	52
24	2001	2748	Thirty Years War: Europe in Agony, 1618-1648	5.24	0.90	5.84	6.87	3.13	660
25	2014	22606	Won by the Sword	5.24	0.94	5.59	6.59	2.59	173

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

## Warning in abbreviate(neighbor_name, 60): abbreviate used with non-ASCII chars

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	206509	Bayonets & Tomahawks	GMT Games	Marc Rodrigue (II)	Marc Rodrigue (II)	Age of Reason	Country: Canada	Action Points
						American Indian Wars	History: Age of Kings	Action/Event
						Wargame	History: French and Indian War	Campaign / Battle Card Driven
							Theme: Native Americans / First Peoples	Dice Rolling
								Point to Point Movement
								Simulation

Individual Game Analysis